January 2025 Newsletter - Year-End Market Reports
Happy New Year!
As a reader of my newsletter, you know Aspen Snowmass Sotheby’s International Realty (ASSIR) provides an outstanding and detailed Market Report quarterly. My colleague, Sara Kurz, and I provide our Mid-Valley Market report twice a year, mid-year and end-of-year. Both reports are included below. I also include some commentary and the Ernemann Report, written by Andrew Ernemann, former top broker in Aspen Snowmass broker and current president of ASSIR to provide some intel on the markets up valley.
The takeaways from both reports support my anecdotal and practical experience over the last six months. Namely, the market has slowed. Not as many buyers or sellers in the market which slowed, but thankfully, did not stall the market. Everything takes longer … and that can be annoying and disappointing particularly if we are used to the fast-paced condition following the pandemic.
A note separate from the reports: Remember all the hype about the Department of Justice and the change on how brokers are to be paid? The regulation changed on August 17, 2024. In my opinion, in our market, this change has been insignificant, with zero impact, on how sales have a occurred. ASSIR did a thorough job of educating our brokers on what to expect and how to mange the change. With integrity and clear communication, I feel that this change has been a non-factor in our local market conditions.
Given the California fires, 2025 may be off to a shaky start for some. The tragedy may affect our market as Californians flee to safe and beautiful places for the next few years. I have had multiple inquiries, so we shall see what we can do to support people who are so displaced. If I can be of assistance in any way to you, your family or friends, please know I am as committed as ever to supporting people in fulfilling their dreams and expectations on where and how they live.
The Ernemann Report
Here’s a note from Andrew Ernneman, president of ASSIR:
Aspen
The Aspen real estate market continues to be strong overall. That said, the first half of 2024 was definitely stronger than the second half; and there have been some modest trend indicators pointing towards a slowing market, but historically low listing inventory continues to drive prices upward. The first ever $100m+ sale in Aspen occurred in 2024 and I would expect as long as there’s wind in the sails of the most affluent real estate buyers and investors there will continue to be confidence injected into the Aspen real estate market in the form of significant sales. The overall market tends to take cues from the top in Aspen so keep an eye on the listing inventory and transaction activity over $15m going forward.
Take a look at this graph with a 20 year perspective on the number of sales and price per sq ft for Aspen residential properties…both facets of the market have a lot of stories to tell when you take a giant step back and study the long-term view!
Snowmass Village
The Snowmass Village market is more bifurcated than Aspen because of the nature of Base Village sales over the past few years. There has been tremendous momentum with each new Base Village condo offering, and the closings of many new condos has blurred the market statistics because there are marked price differences between “new” and “old” Snowmass Village condo prices.
There were nearly 200 condo sales in Snowmass Village over the course of 2024 (compared to about 140 the year prior, and compared to 110 condo sales in Aspen in 2024). By comparison there were only 32 single family home sales in Snowmass Village in 2024.
The average price per square foot for all sales in Snowmass Village jumped significantly over the course of the past year, from about $1,650 per square foot up to nearly $2,250 per square foot for condos (thanks to Base Village closings), while single family prices rose from $1,780 per square foot on average in 2023 to $1,925 per square foot in 2024.
Buyers gained a modest 1% +/- more negotiating power in 2024, but average sales are still pretty tight to the asking price with about a 95-96% sale-to-list price ratio.
Despite the huge price bumps (particularly for condo sales), Snowmass Village continues to be a “value” opportunity compared to Aspen, with average single family home prices less than half of Aspen ($8.5m versus nearly $20m). And, Snowmass condos are still selling at a 25-30% price per square foot discount compared to Aspen.
Similarly to Aspen, Snowmass Village prices have enjoyed a strong 10-year run, with over 10% average annual gains during that time period.
Available listing inventory in Snowmass Village remains historically low – only about 20 single family homes are currently on the market; and not including the 80+ current listings at the new Base Village offering of Stratos there’s about a 6 month supply, or less, of available condo/townhome listings.
So, what does this all mean? The Snowmass Village real estate market continues to have a solid engine in the form of Base Village sales. The “discount” for Snowmass Village condos relative to Aspen has narrowed substantially from about 50% to less than 30% in a relatively short time span, and it will be interesting to see how Stratos sales manifest with some condos asking in excess of $5,000 per square foot (on par with Aspen pricing). A general lack of single family listings available is assisting prices to ever higher levels as well, although the “discount” to Aspen for single family homes has remained steady in the 40-45% range. Overall sales interest and activity remain healthy in Snowmass Village for the moment, the question for 2025 is whether the recent price trends can continue upward given the 20%+ average annual gains over the past five years.
Here’s the 20-year perspective for Snowmass Village sales and price per square foot…note how the trends differ from Aspen, and how both areas share a similar price run over the past few years…
Q4 2024 vs Q4 2023 Market Report
By Aspen Snowmass Sotheby's International Realty
Here is the ASSIR report for Q4 2024. It shows the market has been steady in terms of pricing throughout the valley, while activity and number of sales are down significantly.
This quarterly report compares Q3 2024 to Q3 2023, examining the markets in Aspen, Snowmass Village, Woody Creek, Old Snowmass, Basalt, Carbondale, Glenwood Springs, New Castle, Silt and Rifle. The report separates single family homes from condos, townhomes and duplexes, and also provides a comprehensive vacant land update. Click the link below to dive in!
Our Year-End Mid-Valley Market Report
With Sara’s skills at keeping track of the numbers, please enjoy the commentary we provide in our annual Mid-Valley Report that examines sales statistics in Basalt, Missouri Heights and Carbondale since 2004.
4132 Crystal Bridge Dr, Carbondale
3 beds | 3 full baths, 2 half baths | 3,253 sq. ft. | 3-car garage
Asking $2,375,000
Welcome to a classic legacy home in River Valley Ranch. This 3 level single family home offers the ability to reside mainly on one level with abundant bedrooms and entertaining spaces for guests. Relax outdoors on either of two porches, one off of the kitchen and one going out to the backyard. The spacious fenced-in backyard feels private with mature trees around the perimeter and the scenic 3rd green as the backdrop to the West. There's a cement pad for a hot tub next to the deck (hot tub is negotiable). The mid-level floor includes an open concept kitchen, dining, living room and sitting areas with vaulted ceilings, a powder room and generous primary suite. The large gourmet kitchen features double ovens, a walk-in pantry, granite countertops and plenty of cabinet storage. The upper level includes 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. The guest ensuite bedroom upstairs also includes a private porch that faces Southeast. The lower level includes walk-in access to the garage, a large laundry room and recreation/billiards room. Mountain traditional finishes include wood paneling on the ceilings, built-in Alder cabinets, custom wood doors and trim throughout, and a cozy gas fireplace in the living room. The heated 3-car garage with walls separating each bay provides the perfect spot for a workshop or luxury car storage. Additional amenities include evaporative cooling, stairwell lighting, a whole-house vacuum system, and plenty of storage. There's a spacious unfinished area in the lower level that would be perfect for a mother-in-law suite or additional bedroom, bathroom and living area (please inquire for proposed building plans). River Valley Ranch residents enjoy private access to the Ranch House amenities which include a year-round lap pool with indoor access, summertime outdoor swimming pool for all ages, fitness center, office, meeting and entertaining spaces, and outdoor tennis courts. The 18-hole golf course along the scenic Crystal River and restaurant, The Handlebar, are open to the public.
101 Willits Way #203, Willits
3 beds | 3 full baths | 2,516 sq. ft.
Asking $3,270,000
Top-floor, corner unit in Park Modern building 6. The one-level, open concept floor plan is one of the largest 3 bedroom Park Modern units currently available.
506 Wild Spring Ln, Basalt
2 beds + den | 2.5 baths | 2,202 sq. ft.
Asking $2,100,000
Stunning townhome at The Wilds overlooking downtown Basalt with views of Mt. Sopris. Low maintenance and perfect for part-time or year-round living.